Doc, Chris and Gary share their thoughts on the markets today
Some good overall comments on the gold market and the US markets to wrap up today.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Don’t forget the long range winter forecast though…which if it pans out will mean a much warmer than normal winter over much of the northern third of the country.
Chris I live about 500 miles due north of you so AMEN to that brotherman
Fundamentals are 100% irrelevant as far as the charts are concerned. Think back to our conversations about corn and wheat some months in the past, Chris. Think back to the dismissal that some very timely comments about sugar and coffee received. Basically there is nobody here who knows anything about these things nor do most know anything about gold either. Go and listen to Gary’s show from May 2013 that is posted below. That should be insightful because BOTH technicals AND fundamental analysis has obviously failed. Excuse my cynicism but it just occurred to me nobody here knows what they are talking about. Not sure why it took me this long to figure out. Even Al’s comments on that show were a surprise. They are virtually identical word for word what he is saying lately. Nothing has changed at all.
And gold is still in a bear market.
thanks alisten
No problem……but of course nobody believes it either Agatha. The standard response will be that there is too much natural gas already and too many competitors. Well maybe there is. I really don’t know. All that seems for sure is that something will happen to make NG prices rise again because that is what the charts tell me. We can watch and wait to see if the chart breaks down further. But in the meantime I think getting a list together of the strongest producers cannot be a bad idea (just in case).
But….oh wait…..this is a pure gold site. So nobody really cares.
I’m no expert on natgas but the chart tells me it’s got a lot more downside than a nickel.
The monthly chart is telling you there is more downside? What are you seeing?
Even the daily chart suggests more downside. One example of weakness happened today. It opened at the 20 day ma/ema and went higher before reversing at resistance and closing near the low on the largest volume in a month. It now looks like we have a bear flag in play.
http://schrts.co/X5KOWQ
I think you are missing the forest for the trees. Think bigger Matthew.
More precisely, the bottoms in 1995, 1999, 2012 and the up-and-comer in 2015 show that each bottom is slightly higher than the prior lows. These are significant bottoms being put in so not to be taken lightly. And they are so obvious I am astonished you cannot see it. Fundamentals meanwhile are totally irrelevant. We will fit the NEWS to the charts after the fact but the charts will still take the day in the here and now.
Listener, find any natural gas prospects your willing to share??
Matthew don’t give Bird the time of day! DT
Oops.
You freaks can always read a technical gold bottom where none even exists but are utterly blind to every other commodity chart. Should be funny but its not. How can you miss multi year bottoms on so many charts and still call yourselves technicians!
What’s REALLY funny is that you post comments like that and still expect people to believe that you’re not Birdman.
The weekly and monthly charts are sells whether you call me a freak or not.
It is not about whether they are currently a sell or not. In fact, both charts are still in decline. The comment is a heads up that a bottom is coming into play. You know…in the f*u*t*u*r*e. Are you so dense you cannot understand that? Try thinking a little bigger and you might get it one day.
So anyone who disagrees with your opinion about the “f*u*t*u*r*e” is “dense” too? Of course! Never challenge a pretender.
I’m getting my list together — but it may still be early. A big wild card for that equation will be whether the Petronas-led group ends up building their big LNG export facility up in B.C., and Cheniere goes forward (or doesn’t) in Louisiana. Some very smart people on both sides of that. The economics sure look pretty ugly at anything near current prices; especially with nat gas prices overseas having plunged.
Were these projects to be delayed or scrapped, the surplus — for a while — of nat gas will be more debilitating to the market than even the oil one has been. That will set the stage for a LOT of destruction of productive capacity as well as bankruptcies in a worst case.
Would such a fundamental factor figure in to your computing?
ditto on getting the list together…………consolidation is still coming.
referring to PM miners.
Yes Chris, supply and demand does matter. But as far as technical set-ups go, fundamentals appear to follow not lead and only appear relevant when viewed after the fact especially over shorter time frames. Anyway, I did not mean to sound quite so irritated today but after listening again to that May 2013 interview my blood boiled a bit. It was just the same old thing as now. A lot of false bravado, over-confidence and even arrogance as Gary notes what the “smart money” is doing. But you know what? He was dead wrong back then and I suspect he will be wrong this time too. The smart money was actually doing the opposite of his claims (as if he really knows smart money anyway). In fact they were shorting gold and taking cash off the table at every good opportunity. That’s what burned me up today. Well, that and re-reading old comments from Matthew that were as bullish as ever even as gold was crashing. There are no good analysts. The only winners were traders who sold what was going down and bought what was rising. All the rest is noise in retrospect.
I am bullish at lows even if they appear on very short term charts. To a pretender like yourself of course this would look dead wrong.
Platinum looking good……..$1004….
UP……FRIDAY………1011
I am riding a bull on gold, oil, and Russia. Riding a bear on the S&P.
Talking about your bet Al, why don’t you go for a diesel? 😉
Here is an interesting show. The final bottom for gold is in!!!!
The problem is that the show was produced May 11th, 2013.
That is 30 months ago. You might even recognize the people speaking if you tune in and listen closely. Maybe this is funny for some of you and maybe sad for others who bought the thesis. My only point here is we need to keep our perspective and keep our heads screwed on tight.
An analyst can claim anything they want and if they sound informed, educated and persuasive we might want to rush out and buy something. Even when they are dead wrong.
My strong advice is you think for yourself and do not act until you have done your homework. And NEVER go all in as I read from a few people this past while. That’s just heartache city so stick to your rules and hedge your bets.
I am still short gold by the way (just saying).
The Final Bottom is In! Miners are the buy of the century. Wheeeee!!!
http://www.kereport.com/wp-content/uploads/LibertyExpressRadio21.mp3
MAKES you wonder about TA AND CHARTS.
I thought for a second, it was last Thursday call…………….
need a …’ s
Perfectly said Frank. Chart reading is more art than science and it really is up to interpretation. There are one or two “technical guys” who come to this site daily and throw around charts and pitchforks like they think they know what they are talking about.
They always see a bottom. Just proves they cannot read charts.
If only you had a clue…
Nothing wrong with charts, and graphs , if you can understand them. I do think some of the chartist have some added knowledge, which has been acquired over many years.
I would not debate some, like some should not try and debate a real estate expert.
and I do appreciate their comments, and debate by others……….
The dollar has just completed a death cross. In a healthy market price has no business dropping multiple times below the 200 DMA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99107411988&a=427881113&listNum=1
I think Gary’s comments are absolutely brilliant. From my perspective: the “fundamentals be damned.” All of the action is with technical and cyclical analysis. Although I am still a skeptic that the Fed can continue to “paint the tape” (cf. John Hussman), if we are still in a bull market, then Gary should win some sort of analyst’s award for brilliance.
Here is my problem: There are many technical/cyclical analysts who think that (a) the top is in and (b) we are going to get a bear market in the near future—at least a 7 year cycle low that brings us into bear territory–that even Gary thought we would get a few months ago.
Here is my list: Peter Eliades thinks the top is in and we are eventually going to take out the 2009 lows. Ditto Tim Woods. Ditto Harry Dent. Ditto Robert Prechter. Ditto Doug Casey. Ditto John (not the SF Fed) Williams. Louse Yamada is “all in” on the market top being behind us, but she has not said that we will take out the 2009 lows. Rick Ackerman follows Eliades that the stock market “top is in,” but Rick hasn’t made a call about how far we could drop from here.
Again, I admire Gary. I think he is a brilliant analyst. I read him every day on his blog. If he is right and all of the aforementioned analysts are wrong (not all of them are technical/cyclical analysts), I’m going to save myself some money, simplify my life and only subscribe to his service.
When I put Gary’s & Doc’s thought together, this is the picture it paints for me. Very soon the technicals and fundamentals will become congruent.
To start, liquidity will soon dry up as Doc suggests, and that’s when the market corrects and takes gold and gold stocks down with it. Gold will test it’s base and then begins a bull run as the Fed bathes Wall Street with more virtual money, QE to infinity or whatever it takes to get past the elections..
In the meantime, things are really falling apart in the Middle East (the Bush Legacy lives on). This could cause a flight to the dollar and short term US Treasuries, since that’s how traders have been conditioned over the last few years. But a strong dollar pushesdown gold for it’s final test of it’s new base.
Thereafter, gold will join the market in a final Fed induced blow off phase. But after the election, who knows if gold and the stock market go their separate ways?
De Beers October Rough Sales Reflect Depressed Diamond Market
http://www.diamonds.net/News/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=53581&ArticleTitle=De%2bBeers%2bOctober%2bRough%2bSales%2bReflect%2bDepressed%2bDiamond%2bMarket%2b
India’s polished diamond exports fell 28 percent year…
http://www.diamonds.net/News/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=53591&ArticleTitle=Indias%2bPolished%2bDiamond%2bExports%2b-28%2525%2bin%2bSeptember
Awhile back, A Listener brought up soft commodities. One he personally focused on was coffee for fundamental reasons. Both sugar and coffee have had recent nice runs. After A Listener brought up coffee, I looked at the ETF CAFE and mentioned that a good spot to speculate would be at 12- 13 dollars. On about Oct. 23 and 24, CAFE dipped below 13 dollars and started a run after that. There’s a good chance we’re starting to see a bottoming process.
Doc, one thing I’ve heard you mention (and perhaps chris) on occasion has been to consider the charts and certain investments in denominations other than the usd. I’m not a fan whatsoever of Armstrong but one thing he knows and sos extremely well is capital flows.
For myself as a Canadian investor, the pms bear was taken out back and shot last November. Same in Australia, Russia, Europe, even China as of this summer! Canadian real estate for example is well overpriced , yet is at a 30% discount currently for Americans to purchase.
The more I study it the more I’m beginning to believe capital flows play as much if not more so a roll in preserving ones wealth than even the precious metals (and that comes from a self proclaimed silver bug 😉
Maybe an interesting topic of convo for the weekend show?
You’re right on in your thoughts—if we could divine the next major area of capital flows, we could be ahead of the curve. Right now the conventional markets still seem to be a risk on trade and the bond market appears to be rebounding somewhat—however, some of the commodities and PMs appear to be seeing increasing capital flows. The markets are getting very tentative here almost as if the big players are trying to ascertain where capital should be finding a home.
Well said. And it seems to be highlighted in the pms right now. On one hand the CT is starting to get fairly ugly again. On the other the money seems to be pouring into the miners. SLW for example had its market cap bouncing below 5bil for several weeks yet has added 20% to its market cap over the last two weeks. Meanwhile detour has been 500% or more off its 2013 lows in CAD.
Sorry (CT) should say cot
Jay you are right that that filthy little bear got a “cap in its proverbial a$$ last fall. Thank God! Since last November Detour is up %125, as is Kirkland +%90, Centurra +80%, MAG +%75 , Alascer ……there is a long list.
Capital flows where capital goes. T-dot real estate will pop at least another 10 points before it begins its reversal. Not an easy short yet.
Don’t bother coming up with new ideas Jay. Around here the only thing anyone wants to discuss is gold and silver and conspiracy. Input from listeners is always encouraged. And then it is promptly ignored by the hosts. I think they call it Lip Service.
Do you believe that your attitude encourages anyone to post anything at all?
IDEA……….rental real estate………4 plexs are a way to make some real cash going into the next 20 yrs. The single family home is toast, to much up keep. Spread the cost to the other three and live in one side. Then dump the pit, and buy some gold, for the next run.
the above is not trading advice, and if Shad sees , I hope he does not print post and paste this advice next yr. , when gold will be higher………………………………..the LONG.
GOLD UP FOR THE WEEK…………….1150 TO 1180….$30 UNCLE BUCKS not bad.
FORGET GOLD……………..PLATINUM ON A RUN……..$1011
80% OF THE CHINESE ,,like platinum jewelry …….somebody said.
KWN……here we go again…….$1400 call by Tom Fitzpatrick Citicorp.
If this is the start of a new bull then 1400 makes sense for an initial target. It (well 1398 to be more precise) is the “382” Fibonacci retracement of the entire bear market.
thanks for the info………..IF, …but, I think we are closer to a bull than a bear….jmho
as , Gary,on the next segment, is talking sentiment for bulls at 29%……..that is low.
If wishes were horses…….you get the drift.
Oh look Ma, gold just crashed 8 bucks near the closing bell. Down 11.90 on the day.
What’s that you say about a new bull market? Get your seat belt and crash helmet ready. Monday is coming next.
Enjoy!
Nothing goes straight up, Pretender. To say that gold “crashed” 8 bucks and then turn so bearish based on that is more evidence that you don’t know what you’re looking at.
I got an hourly chart sell signal in the miners this morning, did you? I doubt it. You do cartwheels after the fact and hysterically overstate the importance of the decline as usual. You are way ahead of yourself with the bearishness when it comes to the overall outlook.
An uptrend that lasts many weeks or months will have many small downtrends within it!
Not on the topic list today but if anyone is curious I suggest you pull up a monthly chart of natural gas because we are a nickel away from what I believe will become its final bottom @ 2.40 basis the futures.. Have a look:
Natural Gas Monthly chart — FINVIZ.com
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=m1